The federal government released two major economic reports this week, easing a backlog of data built up by the 43-day government shutdown.
The data showed some warning signs, showing that the unemployment rate had risen to its highest level in four years and retail sales had stalled at the start of the holiday season, some analysts told ABC News. Still, the reports offered bright spots and prompted a dose of skepticism about the figures released after a weeks-long delay, analysts added.
The latest snapshot of the economy comes during an unstable period, amid a slowdown in hiring along with a spike in inflation.
Tuesday’s jobs report “paints a sobering picture of a labor market that may officially be turning cold after a prolonged period of cooling,” Laura Ullrich, director of North American economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab, told ABC News in a statement.
Still, Ullrich acknowledged, “the incomplete and unconventional employment report may always need an asterisk.”
Mark Blyth, a professor of political economy at Brown University, echoed that view and said the new numbers should be taken with more than a few grains of salt.
“In the end you’re left with salt,” Blyth told ABC News.
The United States added 64,000 jobs in November, marking a significant decline from the 119,000 jobs added in September, the most recent month for which complete data is available, according to the report. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September. Unemployment remains low by historical standards, but has inched up to its highest level since 2021.
Partial data for October — limited by the government shutdown — showed a staggering 105,000 job losses that month, although the decline was largely due to employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer from the federal government earlier this year.
“The October payroll number is jarring,” Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at JP Morgan Wealth Management, told ABC News in a statement.
Men work in construction on December 16, 2025 in New York.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
A retail sales report on Tuesday also sounded a cautionary note about consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Retail sales were unchanged in October from September, meaning performance remained stable despite the surge in the holiday season. US Census Bureau the data showed.
“October was supposed to be the big start to holiday shopping,” Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate, told ABC News. “About half of holiday shoppers planned to start shopping before the end of October, but consumer pullbacks elsewhere left October retail sales right where they were in September.”
“Retail sales appear to be losing momentum at a crucial time of year,” Rossman added.
To be sure, the new data offered some positive signs. As in previous months, the health care sector emerged as a strong source of hiring in November, adding 46,000 jobs, the BLS said. The construction and social assistance sectors also contributed to the hiring rebound.
Unemployment increased due to a greater number of people looking for work and, in turn, being counted for tabulation, rather than an overall increase in the count of people out of work, Royal Bank of Canada’s economic team told ABC News in a statement.
On Tuesday, the White House touted continued growth in the labor market.
“The strong jobs report shows how President Trump is repairing the damage caused by Joe Biden and building a strong, America First economy in record time. Since President Trump took office, 100% of job growth has occurred in the private sector and among Native Americans, exactly where it should be,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. statement.
Meanwhile, retail sales demonstrated some areas of strength. Core retail sales, which exclude volatile items such as auto fuel, exceeded economists’ expectations, Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro, told ABC News in a statement.
“Even if October’s retail sales data is dated, it reinforces a central theme for investors and the Federal Reserve: the resilience of American consumers,” Kenwell added.
The new jobs data came less than a week after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point in an effort to boost the sluggish labor market. The move represented the third rate cut this year, bringing the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate to a level between 3.5% and 3.75%.
Interest rates have fallen significantly from a recent peak reached in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate set at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
At a news conference in Washington, D.C., last Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell touted the rate cut as an effort to improve the labor market, but suggested the central bank could be cautious about further rate cuts.
“We are well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves,” Powell said.
