It is expected that the government data that will be published on Wednesday show a strong economic slowdown during the first months of President Donald Trump’s second mandate, since a large number of proposals tariffs fueled uncertainty between companies and consumers, analysts told ABC News.
The measure of the gross domestic product, or GDP, will probably be reduced by an increase in imports as companies store the inventory to avoid long -range tariffs, although the trend did not reflect economic weakness, analysts said.
The government’s GDP formula subtracts imports from exports in an effort to exclude foreign production from the calculation of total goods and services.
The report will detail GDP during the first three months of 2025, offering the first look at an economic health meter since Trump assumed the position.
The data covers a period before the so -called liberation day tariffs in early April.
Analysts expect a strong decrease in economic performance at the beginning of this year, although they do not agree with the seriousness of the deceleration.
Some analysts believe that the data will show that the US economy is inclined in a contraction during the most recent quarter, which would probably intensify warnings on Wall Street about a possible recession.
Bank of America Global Research and BNP Paribas expect the economy to have grown at an annualized rate of 0.4% in a three -month section at the beginning of 2025, which would mark a strong decrease in a rate of 2.4% at the end of last year.
S& P Global Ratings expects the data to show the contracted economy at an annualized rate of 0.3% at the beginning of this year. A prognosis of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, which excludes gold imports, shows that the economy was reduced to an annualized rate of 1.5%.
“We anticipate a marked deceleration in the economy of the United States during the first quarter, driven by the increase in political uncertainty around trade, tariffs and immigration,” S& P Global Ratings said in a note to customers.
The data can be biased by an avalanche of imports as companies sought to avoid rates, S& P Global Ratings Said. The GDP measure deduces imports to exclude foreign manufacturing goods and services, so a unique import increase could blur the finding.
“The reading of the GDP of the first quarter may not provide an accurate reflection of the underlying economic conditions because it is significantly influenced by the front load of imports,” S& P Global Ratings Said.
President Donald Trump observes the day he thanks the winner of the Super Bowl Lix, NFL champion, Philadelphia Eagles, on the southern grass of the White House in Washington, DC, on April 28, 2025.
Leah Millis/Reuters
Many observers define a recession through the abbreviated metric of two consecutive declines in the GDP adjusted by inflation of a nation. The National Office of Economic Research, a research organization responsible for formally identifying a recession, uses a more complicated definition that is based on a variety of indicators.
Despite marking the feeling of the consumer and the ongoing agitation in the market, some key measures of the economy remain quite strong.
The unemployment rate is historically low level and the growth of employment remains solid, although it has slowed from the previous maximums. Meanwhile, inflation cooled in March, which increases price increases well below a peak reached in 2022, they showed the data.
The resistant data offers in the best partial tranquility, some economists told ABC News.
The measures of the economy, such as inflation and hiring, are released a month after the data is collected, often reflect changes in slow movement in business or consumer behavior, economists said. As a result, such measures can be obsolete, especially when the economy is in flow.
Speaking at the Chicago Economic Club earlier this month, the president of the FED, Jerome Powell, recognized the “solid condition” of the US economy, but warned about the signals of a possible deceleration.
“Life moves quite fast,” Powell said.
